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ESG Compliance Rate

89%

00%

2030 Target Probability

35%

04%

Decarbonisation Investment Required to Close Gap

$2.2M

1.5%

Reduction Potential (from procurement shift)

45

TCO2e/T

/1.5 TCO2

2.3%

ai summary (as of 11 Aug, 2025)

  1. Overall Health is Mixed: While ESG compliance is strong at 89%, overall data completeness is moderate at 72%, which may impact the accuracy of emission forecasts and risk assessments.

  2. 2030 Target at Risk: The current business forecast shows a significant and widening gap against the 2030 emissions reduction target, indicating the current strategy is insufficient.

  3. Emissions are Concentrated: The 'Capital Goods' and 'Upstream Transportation' categories are the largest contributors to supply chain emissions, representing key areas for targeted reduction efforts.

  4. Supplier Risk is a Key Concern: With 32 partners flagged as 'High Risk,' there is a notable level of potential vulnerability in the supply chain that requires active management.

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Probabilistic Forecast & Gap Analysis

Probabilistic Forecast: 35% Chance of Meeting 2030 Target

Our model calculates a 35% probability of achieving the 2030 emissions goal on the current trajectory. The business forecast line is flattening, while the reduction target requires steeper, year-over-year decreases.

Gap Analysis (2028 Snapshot):

  1. 2028 Forecasted Emissions: ~300 tCO2​e

  2. 2028 Reduction Target: ~200 tCO2​e

  3. Projected Gap: ~100 tCO2​e. To close this gap, emissions will need to be reduced by an additional 33% beyond the current forecasted improvements for that year.

Aggregate Supplier Risk Score

Overall Score:

68/100

The aggregate risk score is in the medium-risk zone, primarily driven by the concentration of emissions and procurement value in a few key suppliers.

Supplier

Fusion Forge

Apex Chassis

AeroDrive Systems

Risk Level

High

High

Medium

Rationale (Based on Dashboard Data)

Possesses the highest carbon intensity (3.8) among top partners, creating significant compliance and reputational risk.

A combination of high procurement value and high carbon intensity (~3.2) creates a dual risk of both emissions impact and business dependency.

While carbon intensity is moderate, they represent the highest procurement value. Any operational or financial disruption poses a critical continuity risk.

Suggested Mitigation Strategy

Initiate a strategic review focused on their decarbonization roadmap and explore alternative low-carbon forging technologies

Begin qualifying a second supplier for chassis components to reduce dependency and increase negotiating leverage on emissions performance

Schedule a joint business continuity planning session and ensure robust contractual clauses for supply assurance

Decarbonization Strategy Insights

Focus on High-Impact Categories:

Concentrate 70% of your decarbonization efforts and budget on the 'Capital Goods' and 'Upstream Transportation' categories, as they represent the largest sources of emissions.

Optimize the Supplier Mix:

Initiate a feasibility study to shift 15-20% of procurement volume from a high-intensity supplier like Apex Chassis (Intensity: ~3.2) to a low-intensity leader like QuantumLeap Batteries (Intensity: ~0.5) to achieve significant emission cuts with potentially minimal cost impact.

Strengthen Your Data Foundation

Launch a targeted campaign to improve data completeness for 'Electricity' (currently 36%). Without this data, accurately managing Scope 2 emissions and identifying energy efficiency opportunities is impossible.

Category Spotlight: Capital Goods

Titan Casting

Hidden Laggard

While not the highest overall emitter, Titan Casting's carbon intensity is significantly higher than its direct peers in the industrial components space, like Momentum Powertrain. This suggests they are lagging behind in operational efficiency or the adoption of cleaner technologies compared to their specific sub-category.

QuantumLeap Batteries

Hidden Leader

With a carbon intensity of ~0.5 tCO2​e, QuantumLeap Batteries is a clear best-in-class leader. Their performance is exceptionally low not just for the top 10, but likely across the entire 257-partner portfolio. They should be used as a benchmark and a case study for other partners in the 'Purchased Goods' category.

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